This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2020/21 include higher beginning stocks, higher crush, and slightly lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 5 million bushels with higher crush for 2019/20 more-than-offset with lower production and a lower export forecast. Lower 2019 production reflects the latest re-survey by NASS for North Dakota.
The 2019/20 soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels reflecting increased domestic soybean meal use. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels on increased competition from South America.Increased beginning stocks for 2020/21 are more than offset with a higher soybean crush forecast, which is raised along with increased domestic soybean meal use.
With higher soybean crush more than offsetting higher beginning stocks, 2020/21 ending stocks are projected at 395 million bushels. The 2020/21 season-average soybean and product price forecasts are unchanged this month.
The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include slightly higher production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Higher peanut, soybean, and sunflowerseed production is partly offset by lower cottonseed output.
A notable revision to production is for EU canola, lowered 0.2 million tons to 16.8 million, based largely on lower yields for Germany. The EU revision is offset by higher Australian canola production.
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The 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 96.3 million, mainly reflecting lower carryin due to revisions to 2019/20 balance sheets.
For 2019/20, soybean exports are increased 1 million tons each for Argentina and Brazil based on the recent pace of shipments and reflect increased crush demand and imports for China. Partly offsetting is reduced 2019/20 U.S. exports.
These revisions result in higher stocks for China and lower stocks for South America.