This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with fractional increases to beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised, as a 45-million-bushel reduction in estimated production for 2019/20 is largely offset by a 50-million-bushel reduction in projected corn used for ethanol.
Corn used for ethanol is lowered reflecting a slower-than-expected rebound in ethanol production as indicated by Energy Information Administration data during the month of May and into early June.
For 2020/21, with supply up slightly and no changes to projected use, ending stocks are 5 million bushels higher at 3.3 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 per bushel.
The global coarse grain production forecast for 2020/21 is raised 3.2 million tons to 1,484.6 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased use, and lower stocks relative to last month.
Brazil corn production is raised based on higher expected area. Barley production is raised for the EU, based mostly on a forecast increase for the United Kingdom that is partly offset by a reduction for France. Barley production is raised for Australia, but lowered for Ukraine, India, and Russia.
For 2019/20, Brazil corn production is unchanged, as higher indicated area is offset by a reduction in yield. Yield prospects for much of the Center-West are generally favorable in contrast to the South where conditions have been poor.
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Major global trade changes for 2020/21 include a larger corn export forecast for Zambia, with increases in corn imports for Thailand and Honduras. Barley exports are lowered for Australia, based on a reduction in projected imports for China.
For 2019/20, corn exports are raised for Argentina but lowered for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2020 based on observed data through early June.
Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Argentina, South Africa, and Paraguay that more than offset increases for Brazil and India.