Global Markets: Oilseeds – Global Consumption Recovers After 2019/20 Drop

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Global oilseed production is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2020/21, primarily on a rebound in soybean output in the United States and South America. Global oilseed production is projected to reach a record 605.9 million tons on record plantings. Soybean production is forecast to rise 26.6 million tons to a record 362.8 million tons, less than 3 million tons above the previous record set in 2018/19.

Rapeseed, peanut, sunflowerseed, and palm kernel production are also forecast to increase with both sunflowerseed and palm kernel reaching records. Copra and cottonseed production are forecast to fall in 2020/21.

Global oilseed consumption is forecast to rise 2 percent in 2020/21, the strongest pace since 2017/18, reflecting slowly rebuilding feed demand in China following 2 years of declining pork production due to African Swine Fever. Soybean crush and consumption is projected to account for most of the growth in global oilseed use. Higher sunflowerseed consumption is largely offset by lower use of most other oilseeds.

Global oilseed trade is forecast to increase mostly on higher soybean demand from China. Trade in other oilseeds is expected to be nearly unchanged except for sunflowerseed and rapeseed where trade is expected to rise modestly on larger exporter supplies. Global ending stocks are projected to fall slightly, pulled down by lower soybean and peanut stocks. Sunflowerseed ending stocks are forecast to recover from low level forecast for 2019/20.

Global oilseed meal production is expected to grow in 2020/21, driven by expanded soybean meal production. Global protein meal consumption is also forecast to rise, mainly driven by robust demand from China. Trade in protein meals is expected to grow as well, with soybean, peanut, and palm kernel meals more than offsetting declining exports in copra, cottonseed, and rapeseed meals.

Global vegetable oil production is expected to grow modestly, with palm, sunflowerseed, palm kernel, and soybean oils offsetting declines in olive, peanut, cottonseed, rapeseed, and coconut oils. Global food oil consumption is forecast to expand after a year of slower growth due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Palm, olive, and soybean oils are forecast to show strong food consumption growth of 3 percent or more.

Global industrial oil consumption is also forecast higher in line with an expected recovery in biodiesel production in major markets. Global vegetable oil trade will recover following a year of declining global palm oil trade. Global ending stocks are forecast to decline on recovering demand.

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