For the 2019/20 market year, exports are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 98 million and the all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.20 per cwt to $13.00. The 2020/21 outlook for U.S. rice is for larger supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks.
U.S. 2020/21 all rice production is projected at 216.2 million cwt, up 17 percent from the previous year. Partly offsetting the increased 2020/21 crop is a 32 percent decrease in beginning stocks.
The total 2020/21 rice supply is projected at 279.3 million cwt, up 7 percent from last year. U.S. 2020/21 total use is projected at 237.5 million cwt, up 3 percent from the previous year with both domestic and residual use and exports higher.
All rice ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 41.8 million cwt, up 37 percent from the previous year’s low level. The 2020/21 SAFP is projected at $12.90 per cwt, down $0.10 from the 2019/20 revised SAFP.
World production for 2020/21 is projected at 502.0 million tons, a record, and up nearly 2 percent from the previous year. Thailand and China lead production increases with crops raised 2.4 million tons and 2.3 million tons, respectively.
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The largest production declines are for the Philippines and Brazil. Global rice consumption is projected at a record-large 498.1 million tons, up 7.9 million from the previous year. Global exports for 2020/21 are projected at 45.2 million tons, up 2.8 million tons from the previous year.
With supplies rising more than use, global 2020/21 ending stocks are a record-large 184.2 million tons with China and India respectively holding 64 and 21 percent.