WASDE Oilseeds: Reduced Domestic Usage, Increased Ending Stocks

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2019/20 include lower exports, seed use, and residual use, higher crush, and higher ending stocks.

Soybean exports are reduced mainly on strong competition from Brazil. Lower seed use reflects plantings for the 2020/21 crop indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Residual use is reduced based on indications in the March 31 Grain Stocks report.

Soybean crush is raised on higher soybean meal exports and increased domestic disappearance. Domestic soybean meal use is forecast higher with an expected reduction in available supplies of DDGs resulting from lower ethanol production.

With higher crush only partly offsetting lower exports, seed, and residual use, ending stocks are projected at 480 million bushels, up 55 million.

The season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.65 per bushel, down 5 cents. The soybean oil price is projected at 30.0 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents reflecting increased production and ending stocks. Soybean meal prices are unchanged at $305 per short ton.

The 2019/20 global oilseed outlook includes lower production, exports, and stocks compared to last month.

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Global soybean production is reduced 3.7 million tons to 338.1 million on lower production for Argentina and Brazil. Argentina’s production is lowered 2 million tons to 52 million, reflecting dry conditions in the main growing regions during the latter part of February into early March.

Soybean production for Brazil is lowered 1.5 million tons to 124.5 million due to dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul while the crop was in pod-filling and maturation stages.

Global soybean exports are lowered 0.4 million tons to 151.5 million. U.S. and Canadian exports are lowered while Brazil’s shipments are revised up due to a competitive exchange rate and ample exportable supplies.

China’s imports are raised 1 million tons to 89 million, reflecting higher Brazilian shipments.

Global soybean ending stocks are 2.0 million tons lower than last month as lower stocks in Brazil are partly offset with higher U.S. and Chinese stocks.

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