WASDE Cotton: Sharply Lower U.S. Exports, Consumption

    Cotton modules lined up in a gin yard. ©Debra L Ferguson

    The 2019/20 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show sharply lower exports, lower consumption, and higher ending stocks compared with last month.

    A developing global economic slowdown with little precedent is expected to significantly reduce global cotton demand and trade, resulting in one of the largest one-month reductions in projected U.S. cotton exports ever: down 1.5 million bales to 15.0 million. Consumption is 100,000 bales lower, and ending stocks are 1.6 million bales higher.

    Ending stocks are now expected to reach 6.7 million bales, equivalent to 37 percent of total disappearance, compared with March’s expected 26 percent.

    The projected marketing year average price received by upland producers of 59.0 cents per pound is down 1 cent from last month.

    Lower world consumption this month results in lower projected trade and higher projected 2019/20 ending stocks.

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    Consumption is lower for every major country, with total world consumption down 7.6 million bales or 6.4 percent from March. At 110.6 million bales, world consumption in 2019/20 is now projected to be 8.1 percent lower than in 2018/19.

    This would be one of the largest annual declines on record.

    World trade in 2019/20 is down 3.0 million bales from the March estimate. With relatively small increases in beginning stocks and production this month, 2019/20 expected ending stocks are 7.9 million bales higher than estimated in March, and 11.0 million bales higher than the year before.

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