WASDE Coarse Grains: Increased Domestic Feed, Residual Use, Larger Stocks

Harvested corn pouring into grain truck. Photo: University of Tennessee

This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced imports, greater feed and residual use, lower food, seed, and industrial use, and larger stocks. Feed and residual use is raised 150 million bushels to 5.675 billion.

This is based on corn stocks reported as of March 1 which indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter rose about 4 percent relative to a year ago.

Lower forecast corn used for ethanol also supports larger feed and residual use. Corn used to produce ethanol is lowered 375 million bushels to 5.050 billion based on the latest indications from Energy Information Administration data indicating an unprecedented decline in ethanol production and motor gasoline consumption as a result of COVID-19.

Partly offsetting is a forecast increase in the amount of corn used for alcohol for beverages and manufacturing use. With supply down fractionally and use declining, ending stocks are raised 200 million bushels to 2.092 billion. The season-average marketing weighted corn price received by producers is lowered 20 cents to $3.60 per bushel.

The global coarse grain production forecast for 2019/20 is up 1.0 million tons to 1,403.8 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, fractionally higher use, and larger stocks relative to last month. Corn production is raised for the EU and Belarus, with partly offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Laos.

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Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include higher projected corn exports for the EU, with a partially offsetting reduction for Russia.

Corn imports are raised for South Korea, Turkey, Algeria, and Indonesia, with lower projections for Vietnam, Taiwan, Cuba, and Mexico.

Foreign corn ending stocks are raised, mostly reflecting increases for Thailand, Taiwan, India, and Turkey that more than offset declines for Argentina and Mexico.

Global corn ending stocks, at 303.2 million tons, are up 5.8 million from last month.

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