In spite of USDA’s higher than expected estimates of ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat, the May contracts of all three closed higher Thursday. May KC wheat posted the largest gain of the week among grain contracts and was up 14 cents Thursday, helped by early weather concerns.
Midday: Corn is narrowly mixed, soybeans are 9 to 11 cents higher, and wheat is 2 to 10 cents higher.
Corn trade is mixed at midday with light short covering ahead of the report, with China raising expectations of imports overnight, otherwise bullish news remains lacking. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with trade still trying to find an appropriate short-term level of production with unleaded and ethanol futures slightly firmer today.
Corn basis will likely remain sideways for now with much of the slowdowns priced in at this point. Warmer weather will aid early-week progress before declining into next week.
On the report tomorrow, carryout is expected to rise to 2.035 billion from 1.892 last month. Weekly export sales were a marketing year high at 1.85 million metric tons of old crop, and new crop at 608,800 metric tons, along with 373,800 of milo.
On the May contract support is the lower Bollinger band at $3.22, and resistance the 20-day at $3.41.
Soybean trade is 9 to 12 cents higher as it tries to escape the range it’s been stuck in all week ahead of the report with front month leading. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00 higher, and oil 25 to 35 points higher. South America is continuing to harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern, with weak currencies elevating local profitability.
Corn is holding vs. soybeans for new crop overnight, with soybeans remaining reluctant to buy acres with some progress at midday. On the report, carryout is expected to be 430 million bushels, basically unchanged. Weekly export sales were mixed at 523,500 metric tons of old crop, 353,400 of new, 193,000 of meal, and 25,100 of oil.
The May soybean chart support is the gap at $8.41, with resistance the 20-day at $8.60, which we are just above at midday.
Wheat trade is 3 to 12 cents higher with trade continuing to consolidate through the middle of the recent range in pre-report action. There has been talk of new Middle East import tenders short term, with Russia still refining export and transport protocols with one cargo going to Saudi Arabia as an oil deal olive branch, amid a dry start to the spring, while Ukraine looks to see better rains.
Kansas City is at a 66-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is minus 24 with wider action today.
On the report, carryout is expected to remain unchanged at 940 million bushels. Weekly export sales were better on the week at 258,600 metric tons of old crop, and 117,400 of new.
The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.71, with resistance the $5.00 area.