May corn ended down a half-cent as traders chose to ignore USDA’s 97.0 million acre estimate of corn planting intentions, a number that exceeded analysts’ pre-report range of estimates. May soybeans and all three U.S. wheats were higher, possibly related to a gradual easing of coronavirus concerns.
Midday: Corn is 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is flat to 6 cents higher.
Corn trade is 2-3 cents lower at midday in choppy pre-report action with trade remaining range bound. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with more plants shutting down, with ethanol at a 35 cent premium with unleaded trying to bounce off the lows.
Corn basis will likely continue to see pressure except for export-oriented locations. Rains will keep early fieldwork slow. The USDA announced 113,000 metric tons of old crop corn sold to Japan.
On the report, the average guess is for 94.325 million acres on a range of 92.5 million to 96.4 million, with stocks at 8.125 billion bushels on a range of 7.845 billion to 8.492 billion.
On the May contract, support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.27, and resistance the 20-day at $3.56.
Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with profit taking and position squaring ahead of the report today as we ease back from overbought conditions. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower and oil flat to 10 points higher.
South America is continuing to harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment with talks of strikes in Argentina as well, while the Brazilian ral remains very weak.
New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive with the price ratio now at 2.4 or better as we approach early planting with today’s report expected to encourage further realignment. The acre range on the report is at 84.865 million acres with the range at 82.7 to 87.1 million, with stocks at 2.241 billion on a range of 2.075 billion to 2.701 billion.
The May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.68, and the recent high at $8.97 as resistance.
Wheat trade is mostly flat with two-sided trade ahead of the report with Kansas City trade leading. Russia continues to review export policies for the short term as well, with local values elevated. Kansas City is at a 82-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -34 with wider action ongoing.
On the report acres are expected at 44.982 million on a range of 44.35 million to 46.0 million with stocks at 1.432 billion on a range of 1.385 to 1.572 billion.
The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.59, with resistance the $5.08 upper Bollinger Band.