DTN Grain Midday: Marginal Soybean Strength

Mississippi River Port - Rosedale, Mississippi ©Debra L Ferguson

Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is 3 to 6 cents lower.

CORN

Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with trade heading for the lower end of the range in pre-report action. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with more plants shutting down, with ethanol still trading at a 45-50 cent premium to unleaded as demand collapses with crude scoring 18-year lows overnight.

Corn basis will likely continue to see pressure except for export oriented locations. Rains have worked across much of the belt short term to slow early field work with the extended forecast looking drier. Weekly export inspections jumped to 1.269 million metric tons.

On the report, the average guess is for 94.325 million acres on a range of 92.5 million to 96.4 million. On the May contract support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.27, and resistance the 20-day at $3.56.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade moving back towards the upper end of the range again with overnight buying continuing the recent trend, with the day session finding selling again. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points higher.

South America is continuing to harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment with talks of strikes in Argentina as well, while the Brazilian ral remains very weak. New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive with the price ratio now at 2.4 or better as we approach early planting.

The weekly export inspections were soft at 413,957 metric tons. The acre range on the report, at 84.865 million acres with the range at 82.7 ma to 87.1 ma. The May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.73, and the recent high at $8.97 as resistance.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with early gains evaporating yet again. Weather threats remain limited for now. Russia continues to review export policies for the short term as well.

KC is at a 77-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -39 with wider action continuing. World export business has shifted towards Asia short term with weekly export inspections at 363,881 metric tons, continuing the recent range.

On the report acres are expected at 44.982 million on a range of 44.35 million to 46.0 million. The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.69, with resistance the $5.06 upper Bollinger Band.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 490 points as active trade continues. The dollar index is 70 points higher. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are lower with crude $1.20 lower. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $2.50.

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