DTN Grain Close: Wheat Falls Back, Outside Concerns Remain High

May KC wheat fell back 13 3/4 cents and May Chicago was down 11 cents Thursday, trimming back this week’s unexpected rally after prices neared 2020 highs on Wednesday. On a day when U.S. coronavirus deaths shot above 1,000, U.S. jobless claims soared to record levels and crude oil prices fell lower, May corn gain a quarter-cent.

 

Midday: Corn is 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 5 cents lower, and wheat is 3 to 9 cents lower.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with corn remaining rangebound as ethanol demand concerns will continue to limit upside. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with more plants shutting down, and attempting to declare force majeure on some contracts.

Corn basis will likely continue to see pressure. Rains have worked across much of the belt short term to slow early field work with the extended forecast looking drier. Weekly export sales were a marketing year high at 1.81 million metric tons.

On the May contract support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.30, and resistance the 20-day at $3.58.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 1 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade bouncing back a little from early selling as meal leads again at midday. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 higher and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. South America is continuing to harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment.

New crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive with the price ratio now at 2.4 or so. Weekly export sales showed improvement to 904,300 metric tons of beans, 251,200 of meal, and 55,900 of oil.

The May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.71, which we tested overnight, and the recent high at $8.97 as resistance.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 5 to 9 cents lower with trade pulling back from the fresh highs scored yesterday as trade gets a bit overbought and little fresh bullish news. Weather threats for the Plains remain limited with cooler and wetter for the eastern Plains, while the west looks a bit drier but nothing too stressful short term.

Kansas City is at a 77-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -39 with wider action continuing. World export business has shifted towards Asia short term. Weekly exports were improved at 740,000 metric tons of old crop, and 366,400 of new crop.

The May Kansas City chart support is the old high at $4.93, and resistance the January high at $5.05.

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