DTN Cotton Close: Market Decouples From Dow

Cotton seedlings. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

For the first time in many weeks, the Dow charged higher, but cotton lay in its bearish bed. Oddly, the Dow was the market to receive the supremely bearish news of all-time record high unemployment claims, while cotton saw bullish exports-sales.

Yet, each market’s data had opposite effects. The cotton market, being such an economically sensitive market, may be reflecting demand destruction from retail stores and mall closings, as well as the potentiality of sale cancellations if the global economy sinks to lower levels.

Next Tuesday USDA will issue its plantings intentions data, given the circus the market is in whatever the data is will be seen with keen skepticism. As we talked around the Belt, the Southeast is dry, while the upper Delta is wet, with Texas in adequate shape. However, field conditions can rapidly change.

For the moment, all major U.S. ports are fully functioning, including Houston. However, some foreign ports are looking at partial closures, as well as some mills. April/May is looking to be a crucial month period for the global cotton industry.

For Thursday, May cotton closed at 52.78 cents, down 0.66 cent, July ended at 52.83 cents, down 0.70 cent, and December closed at 54.61 cents, down 0.43 cent. Estimated volume was 24,426 contracts.

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