DTN Grain Midday: Big Strength in Wheat

Wheat field. Photo: University of Kentucky

Corn is 1 to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 1 to 5 cents lower, and wheat is 3 to 15 cents higher.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents higher with light short covering and spread unwinding supporting action at midday. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with the weekly report showing production down 38,000 barrels per day, and stocks down 458,000 barrels, with more plants being idled this, which won’t be reflected until future reports.

Corn basis will likely continue to see pressure. Rains have worked across much of the belt short term to slow early field work with the extended forecast looking drier. The USDA announced 138,000 metric tons sold to unknown.

On the May contract support is the lower Bollinger band at $3.36, and resistance the 20-day at $3.59.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans trade is 1 to 5 cents lower with trade backing off the dime higher trade seen overnight, coming up just short of $9.00 before seeing some profit taking. Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. South America is continuing to harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment.

New crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive with the price ratio now at 2.4 or so. The USDA announced 20,000 metric tons of soy oil to South Korea.

The May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.71, with the remaining gap at $8.95 the next round up which we hit overnight before backing off.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 3 to 14 cents higher with May Chicago trade showing the most strength as the inversion builds vs. July with world import demand rising along with concerns about shipping from exporters. Weather threats for the plains remain limited with cooler and wetter for the eastern Plains, while the west looks a bit drier but nothing too stressful short term.

Kansas City is at a 80-cent discount to Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -35 with wider action continuing. World export business has shifted towards Asia short term.

The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.53, with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $4.91 with the recent high at $4.93 beyond that, which we have edged above at midday.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 570 points on stimulus hopes. The dollar index is 24 points lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mostly higher with crude $0.20 higher. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $75.00.

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