Feed Grain Outlook: Few Balance Sheet Changes for 2019/20

    Corn harvest. Photo: Kostic Dusan, 123rf

    Improved sorghum export prospects resulted in lower feed and residual and ending stocks, the only changes to the feed grain balance sheets this month. Both the corn and sorghum season average price received by farmers were lowered $0.05 per bushel to $3.80 and $3.30 respectively based on prices observed to date.

    Both corn and sorghum trade are projected higher, while trade in barley is reduced. Three foreign corn exporters—Argentina, Ukraine, and South Africa—see their corn exports grow. Projected U.S. 2019/20 corn exports are left unchanged this month.

    Domestic Outlook

    Corn Balance Sheet Steady, Price Lowered 5 Cents per Bushel

    Once again, with no new data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and other factors being steady, corn supply and demand is unchanged this month. Total 2019/20 projected supply remains at 15,962 million bushels and use is unchanged at 14,070 million.

    For 2018/19, corn for ethanol is raised 1.9 million bushels to 5,378.0 million on revisions in the NASS Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report. As a result of this change, 2018/19 feed and residual is lowered the same amount. Total disappearance is unchanged.

    The 2019/20 season average price received by farmers for corn is projected $0.05 per bushel lower at $3.80 based on weighted average sales to date. The stocks to use ratio is unchanged at 13.4.

    Grain-Consuming Animal Units

    Grain-consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2019/20 are projected at 103.2 million units, up from last month’s forecast on larger poultry production. There were no significant livestock inventory changes. GCAUs in 2018/19 were 100.7 million units. GCAUs have been rising steadily since 2013/14, when they were the lowest since 2004. With the exception of these two years, GCAUs have generally trended upwards.

    Feed and Residual Use: Four Feed Grains and Wheat

    Feed and residual use for the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) and wheat on a September-August marketing year basis for 2019/20 is projected at 150.2 million tons, 0.3 million below last month’s projection due to a 10-million bushel decline in sorghum feed and residual use.

    Sorghum Export Prospects Improve

    On the basis of increased shipments to China, sorghum exports are projected 15 million bushels higher this month at 135 million bushels. As a result, feed and residual is projected down 10 million bushels at 130 million and ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 35.2 million.

    The season average price received by farmers for 2019/20 is projected at $3.30 per bushel, down 5 cents from last month, based on observed prices to date and the corn-sorghum price relationship.

    Barley and Oats Balance Sheets Unchanged

    There were no changes to the barley and oats balance sheet projections or season average price received by farmers forecast this month.

    Full report.




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