In 2019, Canada rapeseed exports to China plummeted by two-thirds due to significant loss in market access coupled with low demand for meal due to African swine fever. Consequently, Canadian exporters shifted focus to boost market share elsewhere.
With global production of rapeseed down slightly in 2018/2019, many trading partners, especially those that historically relied on Australia rapeseed, sought additional sources. The European Union, with production down by nearly 2 million tons, imported three times more rapeseed from Canada in 2019 than in 2018.
Gains were also made across the Middle East, largely in the United Arab Emirates where Canada claimed 95 percent market share and in Pakistan where Canada claimed 100 percent market share.
In Bangladesh, imports of rapeseed from Canada boomed ten-fold to nearly 200,000 tons. These additional outlets helped offset some of the loss in trade to China, reducing Canada’s decline in overall rapeseed exports to only 20 percent from 2018.
For marketing year 2019/20, production is down for a second consecutive year as dim prospects for resolving market access issues in China and recovering export volume influenced farmers’ planting decisions. Canada rapeseed exports will likely continue to rely on non-China markets, and are expected to recover slightly from marketing year 2018/19. The pace of shipments in the latter half of the year is expected to pick up as high beginning stocks will help offset smaller global production and supply in 2019/20.