The 2019/20 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged this month. The projected season-average farm price is also unchanged at $4.55 per bushel.
The 2019/20 global outlook this month for wheat is for higher production, increased consumption and exports, and lower ending stocks. Output is raised on higher production forecasts for India and Argentina more than offsetting reductions for Turkey and Australia. India’s production is raised 1.4 million tons to a record 103.6 million, mainly on an updated government production estimate.
World exports are increased by 0.8 million tons to 183.6 million as higher exports by Russia and Argentina more than offset reductions for Canada and Australia. Russia’s exports are increased 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million, primarily on higher projected imports by Turkey as Russia is its leading supplier.
Turkey’s wheat imports are raised 2.0 million tons to a record-large 10.5 million on higher consumption, reduced production, and government policies to import additional quantities duty-free to stabilize domestic prices. Turkey’s wheat imports have been rising for the last decade and the country is now projected to be the third-largest importer for 2019/20 behind Egypt and Indonesia. Wheat imports are also higher for Bangladesh as they increased to a record 6.5 million tons on a robust pace.
Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons as increases for Turkey, Bangladesh, and Canada more than offset reductions for the EU, Iraq, and Lebanon. Global ending stocks are projected lower this month but remain record large for the 2019/20 crop year at 287.1 million tons with China comprising 52 percent of the total.