Fear and investor panic continues to grip most financial, energy and commodity markets on Friday. The Dow Jones average is now down nearly 16% from the high set just a week ago, and crude oil futures have plunged $10 per barrel as investors flee equities, energies and commodities. Corn, soybeans and soy meal have appeared to stem the bearish tide to end the week. Wheat ended up finishing 14 cents above the low as well.
Midday: Corn is 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents lower and wheat is 8 to 13 cents lower.
Corn trade is flat to a penny lower in choppy midday trade. Trade is looking for better support to develop as May takes over as the front month. Ethanol margins remain tight with more pressure on blender margins with the pressure in the energy complex while ethanol remains flat. Corn basis remains steady, with mixed action so far this week.
On the May contract, support is the fresh lows at $3.65 marked Friday, with resistance at the lower Bollinger band at $3.70, which we are just below.
Soybean trade is 3 to 5 cents lower. Action is trying to bounce back from early selling for the fourth-straight positive close this week. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 higher, and oil is 50 to 60 points lower with meal the big upside leader this week.
South America remains a bit off normal harvest pace, but issues overall are limited. Argentina export tax changes is the biggest news. The Brazilian real remains very cheap, as well, hurting U.S. export competitiveness near term with new lows scored this week.
New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in the U.S. Positive action has been seen so far this week, but not enough to change the conversation yet. USDA announced 135,000 metric tons of meal to the Philippines.
The May soybean chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.82, with resistance the 20-day at $8.95.
Wheat trade is 6 to 8 cents lower. Spring wheat trade is holding up the best so far this morning, with Chicago trade seeing the most pressure. Weather threats for the Plains remain limited with mostly warmer short-term weather after the recent rain and snow.
KC is at a 73-cent discount to Chicago on the May, with choppy action so far. Meanwhile, Minneapolis is even vs. the May with the March going into delivery at 18 cents. Partial crop condition reports Monday showed no major issues so far for the Plains states. World export business has been quieter in recent days.
The May KC chart support is $4.42 with resistance the lower Bollinger band at $4.52.