March contracts of corn, soybeans and all three wheats finished lower Friday with March Chicago wheat posting the largest percentage loss. USDA’s new estimates for 2020 were bearish for corn, but bullish for soybeans and wheat if USDA’s early numbers prove close to true.
Midday: Corn is flat to 2 cents lower at midday, soybeans are flat to 2 cents higher, and wheat is mixed.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade retreating after touching $3.80 for the 16th-straight session. Ethanol margins are little changed with ethanol futures remaining flat, with spring driving season and better blender margins getting closer.
Corn basis remains steady to slightly softer, with little change in recent days but more open weather should help movement along with March basis contracts coming due. Weekly export sales remain strong at 1.25 million metric tons.
On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band and the fresh lows at $3.75, then the $3.71 4-month low, with resistance at the $3.94 recent 2 1/2-month high with the 20-day just above the market at $3.82 which we remain just below.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher with trade holding just below $9.00 nearby, with spread trade remaining firm and early strength fading again. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower, and oil is 35 to 45 points higher.
South America continues to make good progress with weather and harvest moving forward with little change on the horizon with some rain delays in Brazil in recent days. The Brazilian ral remains very cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness near term with new lows scored this week, with the dollar finally fading a bit this a.m.
New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in the U.S. with little progress on that front this week so far. Weekly export sales were soft with 494,300 metric tons of soybeans, 169,400 of meal, and 42,000 of oil with hints at a third MFP if trade gains don’t materialize.
The March soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $8.88, with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $9.05.
Wheat trade is mixed with trade giving back early gains with trade still looking to sustain buying after the early week surge. Weather threats for the plains remain limited near term domestically with limited short-term moisture across most of the plains and the east seeing the bulk of that, and most wheat still dormant with the cold snap.
Kansas City is at an 86-cent discount to Chicago, regaining a dime the last few days while Minneapolis is back to a 28 cent discount as well. World values remain mostly elevated with Chicago wheat expensive, and Kansas City wheat on the low end with Black Sea and European origin still the better deals for Middle East tenders, and Australia mostly out of the market at the moment.
Weekly export sales were softer at 364,300 metric tons of old crop, and 60,100 of new. The March Kansas City chart support the 20-day at $4.74 which we are testing, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.87.