DTN Cotton Open: Lower on Weekend Jitters

Cotton seedlings. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

The cotton market is slightly lower Friday morning as the market awaits Monday’s delivery for March cotton, and whatever negative weekend news the coronavirus might bring.

To the latter, despite Chinese assurances they are gaining control of the outbreak, the news today is more outbreaks and infections. Reportedly the virus is now in the Chinese prison system.

Also Friday morning, USDA released pretty decent sales and exports numbers. A summary follows:

Net sales of 235,300 RB for 2019/2020 were down 33 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Increases primarily for Vietnam (57,300 RB, including 700 RB switched from Japan and 400 RB switched from Taiwan), Pakistan (57,200 RB, including decreases of 27,100 RB), Turkey (46,600 RB, including 7,300 RB switched from Vietnam), South Korea (24,400 RB), and Indonesia (13,200 RB, including 2,700 RB switched from Japan), were offset by reductions primarily for Malaysia (12,500 RB), Japan (4,900 RB), China (1,100 RB), and Honduras (400 RB).

For 2020/2021, net sales of 141,200 RB were primarily for Indonesia (90,400 RB), Pakistan (29,900 RB), and Malaysia (11,000 RB). Exports of 375,700 RB were down 6 percent from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Exports were primarily to Pakistan (97,100 RB), Vietnam (85,200 RB), China (46,400 RB), Turkey (31,400 RB), and Indonesia (21,100 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 9,500 RB were down 13 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.

Increases were primarily for India (3,600 RB), Pakistan (2,300 RB), Turkey (1,100 RB), El Salvador (500 RB), and Germany (400 RB).

Exports of 10,200 RB were up 38 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were India (4,400 RB), Pakistan (2,000 RB), Vietnam (900 RB), China (900 RB), and Peru (800 RB).

The aforementioned numbers are keeping cotton on its strong demand pace. To that end, last week’s cumulative sales are running 86% of USDA’s forecast for the 2019/2020 marketing season. Additionally, current season sales are also above the 5-year average of 82%.

For Friday, close-in support for May cotton is 68.80 cents and 68.10 cents, with resistance at 70.25 cents and 71.50 cents. Overnight estimated volume is 4,601 contracts.

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