March contracts of corn, soybeans and all three U.S. wheats finished lower Thursday after USDA gave an early glimpse of what they expect for markets in 2020. The U.S. dollar index extended its gain for the year, trading at a new two-year high.
Midday: Corn is flat to 2 cents lower at midday, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower, and wheat is 3 to 5 cents lower.
Corn trade is flat to 2 cents lower with range-bound trade continuing as we already marked trade at $3.80 for the 15th-straight session with spread trade remaining firm.
Ethanol margins are little changed with ethanol futures flat to start the week, with spring driving season and better blender margins getting closer and the weekly report showing production up 8,000 barrels per day, and stocks up 424,000 barrels to new record levels.
Corn basis remains steady to slightly softer, with little change in recent days but more open weather should help movement along with March basis contracts coming due. Weekly export sales are delayed until tomorrow.
On the March contract, support is the lower Bollinger Band and the fresh lows at $3.75, then the $3.71 4-month low, with resistance at the $3.94 recent 2 1/2 month high with the 20-day just above the market at $3.83 which we remain just below.
Soybeans trade is flat to 2 cents lower at midday with the late gains from yesterday fading overnight before light buying during the day session. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher, and oil is 5 to 15 points lower.
South America continues to make good progress with weather and harvest moving forward with little change on the horizon with some rain delays in Brazil in recent days. The Brazilian ral remains very cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness near term with new lows scored this a.m.
New crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in the U.S. with little progress on that front this week so far.
The March soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $8.89, with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $9.08.
Wheat trade is 4 to 6 cents lower with trade still trying to consolidate the move higher and buying remaining in short supply. Weather threats for the plains remain limited near term domestically with limited short term moisture across most of the plains and the east seeing the bulk of that, and most wheat still dormant with the cold snap.
Kansas City is at an 86-cent discount to Chicago, regaining a dime the last few days while Minneapolis is back to an 29 cent discount as well.
World values remain mostly elevated with Chicago wheat expensive, and Kansas City wheat on the low end with Black Sea and European origin still the better deals for Middle East tenders, and Australia mostly out of the market at the moment.
The March Kansas City chart supports the 20-day at $4.74, which we are testing, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.90.