DTN Grain Close: Wheat Pulls Back, Soybeans Nudge Higher

Mature soybean pods ready for harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

One day after March Chicago wheat closed up 24 cents, the three U.S. wheats ended modestly lower Wednesday, while March soybeans stepped up with a 5-cent gain. Nearly all other commodities traded higher Wednesday, an unexpected sight as the U.S. dollar index traded near its highest price of 2019.

 

Midday:

CORN

Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade continuing the recent pattern of higher and lower action as we traded $3.80 for the 14th-straight session. Ethanol margins are little changed with ethanol futures flat to start the week, with spring driving season and better blender margins getting closer and the weekly report delayed until Thursday.

Corn basis remains steady to slightly softer, with little change in recent days but more open weather should help movement along with March basis contracts coming due.

On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band and the fresh lows at $3.75, then the $3.71 4-month low, with resistance at the $3.94 recent 2 1/2 month high with the 20-day just above the market at $3.83 which we remain just below.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade was narrowly mixed with trade pulling back from the recent string of firmer days with fresh export business still lacking short term but spreads firming. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher, and oil is 30 to 40 points lower.

South America continues to make good progress with weather and harvest moving forward with little change on the horizon with some rain delays in Brazil in recent days. The Brazilian real remains very cheap as well, hurting U.S. export competitiveness near term.

New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in the U.S. with little progress on that front this week. The March soybean chart resistance is the 20-day moving average at $8.90, with support the lower Bollinger band at $8.68.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 7 to 10 cents lower with trade giving back some of the big gains seen on Tuesday with trade needing to consolidate gains Wednesday. Weather threats for the Plains remain limited near term domestically with limited short-term moisture across most of the Plains and the east seeing the bulk of that.

Kansas City is at an 83-cent discount to Chicago, regaining a dime the last few days while Minneapolis is back to a 19-cent discount as well. World values remain mostly elevated with Chicago wheat expensive, and KC wheat on the low end with Black Sea and European origin still the better deals for Middle East tenders.

The March Kansas City chart support the 20-day at $4.74, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.93.

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