The corn and soybean markets finished slightly lower in dull, uneventful trade before the long weekend. Wheat finished slightly lower. As coronavirus expanded to 64,000 infected, with upwards of 1,400 deaths, and forecasts for South America showing more beneficial weather for growing crops, the big hope for U.S. soybeans and ag products is the release of duty-free import licenses after the holiday. Corn is under pressure on rumors that China may have bought 500,000 mt (19.7 mb) of Ukrainian corn this week.
Corn is flat to 1 cent lower at midday, soybeans are flat to 1 cent lower, and wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher.
Corn trade is flat to a penny lower in quiet trade at midday with sideways action continuing with little fresh news. Ethanol margins are little changed with ethanol futures remaining flat to slightly higher.
Corn basis remains steady to slightly softer, with little change in recent days but more open weather should help movement along with March basis contracts coming due. Argentina has gained competitiveness vs. the U.S. in recent days with the export wire remaining quiet.
On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band and the fresh lows at $3.75, then the $3.71 4-month low, with resistance at the $3.94 recent 2 1/2 month high with the 20-day just above the market at $3.83 which we remain just below.
Soybean trade is flat to a penny lower at midday with trade still working to push through $9.00 with trade looking for the 10th-higher close in a row on the front month. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower.
South America continues to make good progress with weather and harvest moving forward with little change on the horizon. The Brazilian real remains very cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness near term but has gained this morning with trade still awaiting a trend change.
New crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive ahead of planting in the US as well with some gains this week. The March soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $8.93, with resistance $9.00 nearby.
Wheat trade is 1 to 3 cents higher with trade remaining choppy with little fresh news to move any of the classes of wheat. Weather threats for the plains remain limited near term domestically with limited short term moisture across most of the plains.
Kansas City is at a 80-cent discount to Chicago, regaining a nickel the last few days while Minneapolis is back to an 18 cent discount as well. World values remain mostly elevated with Chicago wheat expensive, and Kansas City wheat on the low end with Black Sea and euro origin still leading to the Mediterranean Sea buyers.
The March Kansas City chart support the lower Bollinger Band at $4.55, with resistance the 20-day at $4.78.