The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, increased exports, and decreased ending stocks. The only supply or use category that was changed this month was a 25 million bushel increase in exports reflecting growing competitiveness in international markets. Ending stocks are cut by a corresponding amount and are now forecast to total 940 million bushels, a five-year low.
Global wheat supplies are lowered fractionally on small and mostly offsetting changes to beginning stocks and production. World exports are increased 1.8 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for the EU on strong shipments and more competitive prices.
Kazakhstan is raised 0.8 million tons, also on a fast export pace. United States is increased 0.7 million tons and is projected to have the largest exports in three years. Partly offsetting are export reductions of 0.5 million tons for Canada and 0.3 million tons for Pakistan.
World imports for 2019/20 are raised 1.9 million tons led by a 0.8-million-ton increase for China and a 0.7-million-ton increase for Turkey, both on a strong pace to date. There are also several historical revisions for trade, consumption, and ending stocks reflecting updated export data, particularly for Pakistan.
For the 2019/20 market year, global consumption and ending stocks are lowered fractionally though world ending stocks remain record large.