This month’s outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice is for increased imports, higher exports, and larger ending stocks. All rice imports are raised 2.4 million cwt to a record 32.5 million on an extremely fast pace so far in the market year. Long-grain imports are raised 1.5 million cwt consisting largely of fragrant varieties from Asia.
Combined medium- and short-grain imports are raised 0.9 million cwt on continued imports from China. Total rice exports are raised 1.0 million cwt (all long-grain) reflecting a strong pace of shipments so far in the market year and an abnormally large outstanding sales balance.
All rice ending stocks are raised 1.4 million cwt to 30.0 million and the season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per cwt to $13.00, still the highest price in 5 years.
Global 2019/20 rice supplies are raised fractionally with higher beginning stocks mostly offset by lower production. Global exports are lowered 0.8 million tons led by a 0.6-million-ton decrease for India reflecting a slowing pace.
Global imports are down 0.4 million tons and world consumption is down 0.9 million; both reflecting several downward revisions. With supplies higher and consumption lower, global ending stocks are raised 1.0 million tons to a record high 178.1 million.