WASDE Oilseeds: Increased Domestic Exports, Lower Ending Stocks

Freshly harvested soybeans. ©Debra L Ferguson

This month’s 2019/20 U.S. soybean outlook is for increased exports and lower ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2019/20 are projected at 1.825 billion bushels, up 50 million from last month partly reflecting increased imports for China. With soybean crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are reduced 50 million bushels to 425 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $8.75 per bushel, down 25 cents reflecting reported prices to date. The soybean oil price forecast is lowered 0.5 cents to 33.5 cents per pound. The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $305.00 per short ton.

This month’s 2019/20 global oilseed outlook includes higher production, trade, and stocks relative to last month. Global oilseed production is raised 2.2 million tons to 576.8 million, with higher soybean, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production. Partly offsetting is lower palm kernel production.

Soybean production for Brazil is increased 2 million tons to 125 million due to favorable weather in Mato Grosso as well as improved rainfall in southern and northeastern soybean areas. Sunflowerseed production is increased for Ukraine on a higher yield.

Palm kernel and palm oil production are reduced for Malaysia and Indonesia on current production to date and dry weather conditions throughout the past year.

Global 2019/20 oilseed exports are raised mainly on a 2.4-million-ton increase to soybean trade. China’s soybean imports are increased 3 million tons to 88 million reflecting higher soybean crush.

Correspondingly, soybean exports are increased for the United States, Brazil, and Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are 2.2 million tons higher than last month, with higher stocks for China and Brazil.

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