WASDE Coarse Grains: Reduced U.S. Corn Exports, Increased Ethanol Use

This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is little changed relative to last month, with offsetting changes to exports and corn used for ethanol. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January.

Offsetting is a 50 million bushel increase in corn used for ethanol, based on Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production data through December and the robust pace of weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration during the month of January.

With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is also unchanged at $3.85 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is projected 0.9 million tons higher to 1,402.7 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production and consumption, and lower stocks relative to last month.

Global corn production is raised 0.8 million tons, with increases for South Africa, Moldova, and Ukraine more than offsetting a reduction for Vietnam. For South Africa, production is higher as timely rainfall during the month of January improves yield prospects.

Major global trade changes for 2019/20 include higher projected corn exports for South Africa, Ukraine, and the EU, with a largely offsetting reduction for the United States. Corn imports are raised for Turkey and Brazil, with the latter reflecting larger-than-expected shipments to livestock production areas in the southern part of the country.

Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for Vietnam, Brazil, Paraguay, and the EU. Global corn ending stocks, at 296.8 million tons, are down 1.0 million from last month.

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