DTN Grain Close: Corn, Soybeans Under Heavy Pressure

Grain elevator and train at Canton, Kansas Photo: K-State Research and Extension - Creative Commons

With the Chinese Lunar New Year celebration about to begin, the lack of any hint of Chinese interest in U.S. soybeans, along with growing Brazilian soy production estimates and the continued veg oil correction all combined to send March beans ever closer to $9.00. Also pressuring grains and soybeans is the expanding new coronavirus in China, which is now responsible for 26 deaths and over 900 infections, including two in the U.S.

 

Midday: Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents lower and wheat is 4 to 8 cents lower at midday.

CORN

Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from the gains Thursday with broad ag weakness and overbought conditions. Ethanol margins remain poor with the weaker corn values, but ethanol futures remained mired at the lower end of the range. U.S. weather will likely limit short-term movement in most areas with warmer weather expected to be on the way into the end of the month.

Basis should remain sideways to slightly firmer. The weekly export sales showed improvement at 1.006 million metric tons (mmt), with 142,428 metric tons (mt) hitting the daily wire. On the March contract, support is the 20-day at $3.87, with resistance the recent high at $3.93 3/4.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to bore into resistance levels. The trade is waiting to see export sales, and South America is not adding much support with good progress there. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil was 20 to 30 points lower.

The Brazilian real remains very cheap, as well, hurting U.S. export competitiveness. South American weather remains within the recent pattern for soybeans, as well, with early harvest underway.

Basis has remained steady at processors with the strong crush margins and poor weather. Weekly export sales were led by products with 790,000 metric tons of soybeans, 641,900 of meal and 55,600 of oil. The March chart support is at $9.00 with psychological support there, and resistance is the lower Bollinger band at $9.07.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 4 to 9 cents lower at midday with Chicago trade the downside leader this morning as we reverse further from the recent highs. The strong dollar is adding pressure.

Cold threats remain limited for the Plains with most of the moisture staying to the east. Western snow cover remains limited, and warmer temps are expected to return to most areas in the short term. KC is at an 86-cent discount to Chicago, while Minneapolis is back to a 20-cent discount.

Weekly export sales improved at 696,000 metric tons. The March KC chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.86, which we are testing at midday. Resistance is the upper Bollinger band at $5.03.

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