Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade fading back from the upper end of the range to start the week as we try to find some equilibrium after the moves at the end of last week.
Ethanol margins remain tight, with futures just above the lows with export business needing to pick up, or we will likely see plants being idled again soon. U.S. weather will likely limit short-term movement in most areas with warmer weather expected to be on the way.
Basis should remain sideways to slightly firmer. Export inspections were soft at 345,589 metric tons with trade looking for confirmation of last week’s rumored sales with the wire quiet today. On the March contract support is the 20-day at $3.86, with resistance the recent high at $3.92.
Soybeans trade is 11 to 13 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back with South American harvest getting underway along with limited short-term weather issues, and no major export sales from the U.S. confirmed yet. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 65 to 75 points lower.
The Brazilian ral remains very cheap as well hurting U.S. export competitiveness. South American weather remains within the recent pattern for soybeans as well.
Basis has remained firm at processors with the strong crush margins. Weekly export inspections are expected to be in the 1.199 million metric ton range. The March chart support is at the December gap at $9.15 with resistance the 20-day at $9.42.
Wheat trade 2 to 7 cents higher with Chicago taking the midday lead again with spreads testing the recent highs. Cold threats remain limited for the plains with most of the moisture staying to the east, with western snow cover remaining limited, and warmer temps expected to return to most short term.
KC is at an 80 cent discount to Chicago, while Minneapolis is back to a 12 cent discount. Weekly export inspections were rangebound at 435,129 metric tons. The March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day moving average at $4.81, with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 5.04.
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 50. The dollar index is 5 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are flat. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mostly higher with gold $3.00 lower.