DTN Grain Open: Soft as Trade Waits for “Phase-One”


6:00 a.m. CME Globex: March corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel, March soybeans are down 2 1/2 cents, and March KC wheat is down 1 1/4 cents.

CME Globex Recap: Equity markets are mixed to firmer overnight as investors digest the latest round of Chinese import/export data ahead of the “phase-one” signing Wednesday. China’s exports during 2019 slowed to 0.5% in dollar terms, the slowest rate of growth since 2016 and down from 9.9% the year before. Imports were down 2.8% as the trade war with the U.S. took its toll.

There were positives, however, with China’s crude oil imports up 9.5% on the year, setting a new record for the 17th straight year according to Reuters. Also noteworthy, Chinese soybean imports in December jumped by 67% from a year earlier to a 19-month-high. China imported 9.54 million metric tons (mmt), 350 million bushels (mb), up from 5.72 mmt (210 mb) a year earlier.

Grains are lower overnight, continuing to consolidate inside recent ranges as traders await details about the “phase-one” singing. The risk of a “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact” situation in grains is a very real risk in our opinion, especially if the tonnages don’t live up to the hype. Regardless, clarity should be a positive, especially as South American crops begin to take shape.

OUTSIDE MARKETS: Previous closes on Monday showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 83.28 at 28,907.05 and the S&P 500 up 22.78 at 3,265.35 while the 10-Year Treasury yield ended at 1.848%. Early Tuesday, the March DJIA futures are up 17 points.

Asian markets are mixed with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 174.6 (0.73%) and China’s Shanghai Composite down 8.75 points (-0.28%). European markets are mixed with London’s FTSE 100 up 22.3 points (0.29%), Germany’s DAX up 8.59 points (0.06%) and France’s CAC 40 down 3.73 points (-0.06%).

The March Euro is down 0.001 at 1.120 and the March U.S. dollar index is up 0.115 at 97.175. The March 30-Year T-Bond is up 7/32nds, while February gold is down $5.50 at $1,545.10 and February crude oil is up $0.24 at $58.32. Soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange were up 0.02% while soybean meal was down 0.26%.

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