The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. wheat is for stable supplies, increased feed and residual use, and lower stocks. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels on lower-than-expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report.
Seed use is down 1 million bushels reflecting 2020/21 wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Ending stocks are now projected at 965 million bushels, down 9 million from the previous report.
The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.55 per bushel.
Foreign production for the 2019/20 market year is dropped 1.0 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Russia on updated government production data, and a 0.5-million-ton decrease for Australia reflecting the severe drought conditions in parts of the country. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton increase for the European Union.
Foreign consumption is raised fractionally, and global exports are raised 1.3 million tons. The export increase is led by a 2.0-million-ton increase for the EU on improved price competitiveness and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine on pace to date. Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton decrease for Russia reflecting lower supplies and higher relative prices.
With foreign supplies falling and total use increasing, foreign ending stocks are lowered 1.2 million tons to 261.8 million.