WASDE Rice: Increased Domestic Use, Lower Stocks

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This month’s outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice is for lower supplies, increased use, and declining ending stocks. U.S. 2019/20 all rice production is 184.7 million cwt, down 3.3 million from the previous estimate.

Medium- and short-grain production is lowered 1.8 million cwt and long-grain is reduced 1.5 million. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,471 pounds per acre, down 116 pounds from the prior estimate.

Rice imports are raised 0.5 million cwt to a record 30.1 million on strong imports of aromatics from Asia. All rice domestic and residual use is raised 2.0 million cwt on higher-than-expected usage for August-November as implied by the NASS Rice Stocks report.

Projected all rice exports are increased 0.5 million cwt to 98.0 million reflecting a 1.0-million-cwt increase for long-grain and a 0.5-million-cwt decrease for medium- and short-grain. The long grain increase is due to a fast export pace to date, while combined medium- and short-grain shipments have been slow.

With use rising and supplies falling, projected 2019/20 ending stocks are lowered 5.3 million cwt to 28.6 million. The projected 2019/20 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $13.20.

Global 2019/20 rice supplies are down fractionally to 671.1 million tons based on a 1.7-million-ton production decline being mostly offset by an increase in world beginning stocks.

The increase in stocks is almost entirely due to final government data from India. The production decline is mostly caused by a 2.0-million-ton cut to Thailand’s crop as the severe drought in the region has reduced both planted area and yield prospects. Partly offsetting is a 0.4-million-ton increase in the Bangladesh crop.

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World consumption increased slightly and global trade is down fractionally.

For trade, Thailand’s exports are lowered 0.9 million tons on the smaller crop. However, this reduction is partially offset by a 0.4-million-ton increase for Pakistan, and a 0.3-million-ton increase for India.

Global ending stocks are lowered 0.8 million tons to 177.1 million but remain record high.

Full report.

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