WASDE Oilseeds: Higher U.S. Soybean Production, Supplies Unchanged

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U.S. oilseed production for 2019/20 is estimated at 107.4 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month. Smaller canola, sunflowerseed, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by a larger soybean crop.

Soybean production is estimated at 3.56 billion bushels, up 8 million on a higher yield. Harvested area is estimated at 75.0 million acres, down 0.6 million from the previous forecast, with the largest reductions for North Dakota and South Dakota. Yield is estimated at 47.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels led by increases for Illinois and Indiana.

Soybean supplies are relatively unchanged as lower beginning stocks and imports offset higher production. With crush and export forecasts unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel, up 15 cents in part reflecting stronger soybean oil prices. The soybean oil price forecast is raised 3 cents to 34.0 cents per pound. The soybean meal price forecast is reduced $5.00 to $305.00 per short ton.

Foreign oilseed 2019/20 production is up 0.2 million tons to 467.2 million, with higher sunflowerseed production partly offset by lower cottonseed, rapeseed, and palm kernel. Sunflowerseed production is increased for Russia on higher yields.

Palm kernel and palm oil production are lowered for Malaysia due to dry weather conditions over the past year. Lower global vegetable oil production paired with increasing demand results in a 9 percent year-over-year decline in vegetable oil stocks.

Other notable oilseed changes include a 0.5-million-ton increase to Chinese soybean crush due to a higher-than-expected pace to date.

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