This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for greater beginning stocks, slightly higher production, reduced food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), larger feed and residual use, lower exports, and smaller ending stocks.
Beginning stocks are raised 107 million bushels reflecting upward revisions to both on-farm and off-farm stocks as of September 1 as reported in Grain Stocks. Corn production is estimated at 13.692 billion bushels, up 31 million as a higher yield more than offsets a reduction in harvested area.
Total corn use is up 155 million bushels to 14.070 billion. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels to 1.775 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2012/13 marketing year.
FSI use is lowered 20 million bushels, with lower projected corn used for starch, glucose and dextrose, and high fructose corn syrup. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 5.525 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter and the 2018/19 marketing year as reflected by the Grain Stocks report.
With use rising more than supply, 2019/20 corn stocks are reduced 18 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.85 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is forecast marginally higher to 1,401.8 million tons. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for slightly lower production and consumption, and reduced stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for Bangladesh, Russia, and the EU. Other major coarse grain production changes include larger barley production for the EU, with reductions for China and Australia.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2019/20 include increased corn exports for Ukraine and the EU. For 2018/19, Brazil’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2019 are raised based on observed shipments to date.
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Barley exports for 2019/20 are raised for the EU, Argentina, and Ukraine, with a partly offsetting reduction for Australia. Barley imports are raised for Turkey and China.
China’s corn feed and residual use is raised for both 2018/19 and 2019/20 based on lower barley feeding. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, mostly reflecting reductions for China and Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 297.8 million tons, are down 2.8 million.