WASDE Rice: Higher U.S. Exports, Reduced Ending Stocks

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice this month is for unchanged supplies, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks. All rice exports are raised 2.5 million cwt to 97.5 million on export sales and shipment pace to date and on expectations for continued improved competitiveness of U.S. long-grain exports in Western Hemisphere markets.

Long-grain exports are increased 3.0 million cwt to 69.0 million, the highest since 2016/17. Conversely, combined medium- and short-grain exports are lowered 0.5 million cwt to 28.5 million on reduced exports outside of Northeast Asian markets.

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Projected 2019/20 all rice ending stocks are lowered 2.5 million cwt to 33.9 million, down 24 percent from last year. The projected 2019/20 all rice season-average farm price is unchanged at $13.00 per cwt, compared to $12.30 for 2018/19.

Global 2019/20 rice supplies are raised by 0.6 million tons to 671.6 million, mainly on higher production for China as its output is raised by 0.7 million tons to 146.7 million on updated production data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. World 2019/20 consumption is lowered by 0.2 million tons to 493.8 million.

Global 2019/20 trade is decreased fractionally to 45.7 million tons, as reduced exports by India and Thailand are not completely offset by higher exports from Vietnam and Burma. Projected global ending stocks are up 0.8 million tons this month to a record-large 177.8 million with China accounting for 66 percent of the total.

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