WASDE Cotton: Lower Domestic Production, Ending Stocks

Ginned cotton bale coming off conveyor at Mill Creek Gin. ©Debra L Ferguson

This month’s outlook for U.S. cotton in 2019/20 includes lower production and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is lowered 611,000 bales mainly due to a 500,000-bale decline in Texas. Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. Ending stocks are 600,000 bales lower this month, at 5.5 million. Upland cotton’s season-average farm price is also unchanged at 61 cents per pound.

The global 2019/20 cotton forecasts include lower beginning stocks and production, largely offset by lower consumption. A nearly 900,000-bale decline this month in beginning stocks is led by a 700,000-bale reduction in India, following a report by India’s Cotton Advisory Board that lowered India’s 2018/19 cotton crop by a similar amount. World cotton production in 2019/20 is projected at 121.1 million bales, down 830,000 from November, and 3.0 million higher than in 2018/19.

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Production changes for 2019/20 this month other than the United States include decreases of 800,000 bales for Pakistan, 500,000 for India, and smaller declines for Australia, Turkey, and Chad. Partly offsetting are a 900,000-bale increase in Brazil’s projected crop, a 500,000-bale increase for Uzbekistan, and several smaller gains.

A 1.2-million-bale decline this month in projected world consumption is led by a 1.0-million-bale reduction for China, due in part to lower textile exports. The consumption forecasts for Vietnam and Pakistan were also reduced, offsetting a small increase for Uzbekistan.

Global 2019/20 ending stocks are nearly 500,000 bales lower this month. At 80.3 million bales, total ending stocks are only projected about 600,000 bales higher than in 2018/19, but stocks outside of China are expected to rise 3.1 million bales from the year before.

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