Soybeans continued to recover Thursday from what has been a 95-cent plunge since late October. Corn has struggled to rally much in the face of export sales that are down a hefty 57% versus a year ago. Commodity funds continue to press corn lower.
Midday: Soybeans lead mixed trade at midday.
Corn trade is flat to 1 cent higher at midday with trade back to the middle of the recent range after the pull back yesterday with little other fresh news so far this week. Ethanol margins remain steady with the blenders gaining the benefit of the crude and unleaded move this week while ethanol futures have been mostly sideways.
Basis has held up well with some strength showing up at processors again. South America should see areas of improvement as planting progresses, with a drier week in Argentina expected through the weekend. Weekly export sales were rangebound at 546,115 metric tons.
On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.74, with resistance the 20-day at $3.81 at which we failed again.
Soybeans are 6 to 8 cents higher at midday with trade finding follow-through buying after the strong close yesterday as we ease off the extremely oversold conditions along with 245,000 metric tons of soybeans sold on the daily wire between old and new crop. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher with meal moving back above $300 a ton. The real remains cheap vs. the dollar although with early week gains fading again.
Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness showing up on the break. Weekly export sales were soft for the Holiday week at 683,783 metric tons of soybeans, 181,050 of meal, and 10,781 of oil.
January chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.61 which we are finally pulling away from, with resistance well above the market at $9.00 where the 20-day moving average, along with exceptionally oversold conditions starting to ease.
Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 3 cents higher with Minneapolis trade leading at midday with trade further consolidating in the higher range. The Chicago/Kansas City March spread is back to 85 cents. Chicago also holding a 6 cent premium to Minneapolis which has narrowed sharply this week. The dollar remains rangebound but is starting to shift lower again.
Export business has been quiet so far this week. The forecast dries the Plains back out short term, with little change to world conditions north and south this week. Weekly export sales were softer again at 228,086 metric tons.
The March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.35, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.47.