Mostly Firmer Trade at Midday
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher with light buying so far today as trade looks to push through nearby resistance and further consolidate the recent rally. Ethanol margins are stable to start the week, with blenders getting a boost from unleaded values while ethanol futures are sideways to slightly lower so far.
Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest so far with another storm stopping remaining harvest for now, but warmer weather will return for many. South America should see areas of improvement as planting progresses, with a drier week in Argentina expected through the weekend. Harvest progress was at 89% vs. 98% on average.
On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.73, with resistance the 20-day at $3.82, which we are just above at midday.
Soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher with early gains fading yet again as the president indicated that a trade deal may wait until after the election but we have held off attempts to break lower so far. Meal is .50 to $1.50 higher, and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. The ral remains cheap vs. the dollar although slightly firmer yesterday with the export wire quiet last week and Monday.
Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness showing up on the break. Harvest was pegged at 96% vs. 98% on average.
The January chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.65 which we tested, with resistance well above the market at $9.00 which is the 20-day moving average, along with exceptionally oversold conditions.
Wheat trade is 8 cents to 5 cents higher with trade still working to consolidate in the higher range we’ve pushed to in the last week. The Chicago/Kansas City March spread is back to 90 cents. Chicago also holding a 19 cent premium to Minneapolis, with sharply narrower action today.
The dollar remains rangebound but is starting to shift lower again. Export business remains focused on the Black Sea again. The forecast dries the Plains back out short term, with the Black Sea seeing better short-term action, while Australia’s crop is estimated to be off about 20% on the year.
The March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.35, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.48.
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 420. The dollar index is 18 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude $0.05 higher. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $17.50.