DTN Grain Midday: Wheat, Soybeans Lagging

©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

Corn is firmer at midday, with wheat and soybeans lagging.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with trade holding the gains from Friday so far, with little fresh news out of the weekend. Ethanol margins are stable to start the week, with blenders getting a boost from unleaded values while ethanol futures are sideways.

Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest so far with another storm stopping remaining harvest. South America should see areas of improvement as planting progresses, with a drier week in Argentina expected. Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 428,856 metric tons, with harvest progress expected at 90-92%.

On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.72, with resistance the 20-day at $3.82, which we are testing at midday, along with oversold conditions easing.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans are 3 to 5 cents lower with initial nickel higher trade evaporating again during the day session with trade concerns offsetting short term drier forecasts in Argentina. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher, and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. The real remains cheap vs. the dollar with the export wire quiet last week and today.

Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness showing up at crushers. Weekly export inspections were strong at 1.547 million metric tons, and harvest should be almost wrapped up.

The January chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.72 which we are a dime above, with resistance well above the market at $9.09 where the 20-day moving average, along with oversold conditions.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower with trade still working to consolidate in the higher range we’ve pushed to last week. The Chicago/Kansas City March spread is 95 cents with wider action to start, and back near the record. Chicago also holding a 29 cent premium to Minneapolis. The dollar remains rangebound. Export business remains focused on the Black Sea again.

The forecast dries the Plains back out short term, with the Black Sea seeing better short-term action. Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 246,988 metric tons, with crop conditions mostly steady.

The March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.35, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.48.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 220. The dollar index is 40 lower. Interest rate products are flat to higher. Energies are firmer with crude $0.80 higher. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious metals are weaker with gold down 3.70.

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