DTN Fertilizer Trends: Prices Continue Slide Lower

Early season fertilizer application: Photo: University of Minnesota

Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the third week of November 2019 continued mostly lower. This lower trend in prices has been in place for several months now.

Seven of the eight major fertilizers were lower in price from the month earlier, although once again none were considerably lower. DAP had an average price of $456/ton, MAP $466/ton, potash $381/ton, urea $387/ton, anhydrous $496/ton, UAN28 $245/ton and UAN32 $284/ton.

The remaining fertilizer, 10-34-0, was slightly higher from last month with an average price of $472/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.42/lb.N, anhydrous $0.30/lb.N, UAN28 $0.44/lb.N and UAN32 $0.44/lb.N.

All the weather issues surrounding corn production this growing season have weighed heavily on some fertilizer stocks. One stock analyst, however, expects a rebound into next year, according to Dow Jones.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Byrne upgraded CF Industries Holding and Nutrien to “Buy” from “Neutral” on Monday. He noted both stocks could benefit from an agricultural rebound.

Nutrien stock was up 1.1% and CF Industries was up 2.7% in trading Monday afternoon.

“After a year of markedly lower fertilizer prices, we believe fertilizer shares reflect particularly attractive buying opportunities given our expectation for a price inflection by spring in all three major nutrients,” Byrne wrote. “Phosphate and potash inventories remain high, but strong demand in North America, Brazil and India should facilitate quick drawdowns and increased purchasing.”

Prospects are for more corn acres next spring and companies that sell fertilizer could benefit, he wrote.

Byrne wrote CF Industries’ low-cost position should allow it to benefit in the medium term despite technological and industry developments which will continue to put some pressure on nitrogen prices. Nutrien’s nitrogen and potash businesses are at the low end of the global cost curve and well positioned for future growth, he wrote.

Retail fertilizers are mixed in price from a year ago. MAP is now 12% less expensive, DAP is 9% lower, urea is 5% less expensive, anhydrous is 4% lower and both UAN28 and UAN32 are 1% less expensive from last year at this time. In addition, 10-34-0 is 3% more expensive and potash is 4% higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Nov 19-23 2018 501 530 368 407
Dec 17-21 2018 508 532 377 407
Jan 14-18 2019 512 534 383 407
Feb 11-15 2019 512 537 385 405
Mar 11-15 2019 510 534 386 402
Apr 8-12 2019 505 532 387 404
May 6-10 2019 501 527 391 418
Jun 3-7 2019 497 527 392 434
Jul 1-5, 2019 498 532 392 432
Jul 29-Aug 2 2019 494 530 393 428
Aug 26-30 2019 491 494 387 412
Sep 23-27, 2019 479 475 384 404
Oct 21-25, 2019 465 473 383 404
Nov 18-22 2019 456 466 381 387
Liquid
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Nov 19-23 2018 457 520 246 287
Dec 17-21 2018 457 565 265 304
Jan 14-18 2019 462 580 270 305
Feb 11-15 2019 470 596 271 318
Mar 11-15 2019 469 596 269 318
Apr 8-12 2019 481 592 271 317
May 6-10 2019 487 595 267 310
Jun 3-7 2019 487 591 271 314
Jul 1-5, 2019 482 584 276 317
Jul 29-Aug 2 2019 486 580 272 320
Aug 26-30 2019 470 528 256 290
Sep 23-27, 2019 471 511 254 289
Oct 21-25, 2019 471 507 251 291
Nov 18-22 2019 472 496 245 284

Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @RussQuinnDTN

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