DTN Grain Midday: Soybeans Continue to Struggle

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Close: March Chicago wheat closed up 15 cents Friday, leading post-holiday trading with light deliverable supplies and no deliveries on first notice day. March corn was up 8 cents, also showing no deliveries, while January soybeans fell a seventh consecutive day, ending at $8.76 1/2.


Midday: Wheat and corn are sharply higher at midday, while soybeans continue to struggle.


Corn trade gapped slightly higher, and is holding near the highs of the day up 6-8 cents with the December contract now in delivery. Ethanol margins are narrowing this morning with ethanol futures unable to hold the early gains.

Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest so far with another storm stopping remaining harvest. South America should see areas of improvement as planting progresses, especially in Brazil with no major issues on the horizon for now. Weekly export sales showed improvement at 806,600 metric tons.

On the March contract support is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.71, with resistance the 20-day at $3.83, along with heavily oversold conditions.


Soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower with light short covering evaporating rapidly to have trade scoring new lows for the move yet again. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points higher. The ral remains cheap vs. the dollar with the export wire quiet so far this week.

Bean basis has moved to a more sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness showing up at crushers. The weekly export sales were good at 1.66 million metric tons of soybeans, 93,200 of meal, and 14,900 of oil.

The January chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $8.76 which we are just above, with resistance well above the market at $9.12 where the 20-day moving average, along with oversold conditions.


Wheat trade are 5 to 15 cents higher with Chicago trade streaking higher with the December contracts going into delivery. The Chicago/Kansas City March spread is 92 cents with wider action so far this week, and back near the record. Chicago also holding a 28 cent premium to Minneapolis. The dollar remains rangebound.

Export business remains focused on the Black Sea again. The extended forecast hints at some relief for the drier western areas with mixed temps while the Black Sea has some short-term dryness. Weekly export sales showed improvement at 612,700 metric tons.

The March Kansas City chart support is the 20-day at $4.35, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.46 which we testing at midday.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 80. The dollar index is 9 lower. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are weaker with crude 2.20 lower. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 8.00.

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