Rice Market Update: New Crop Quality Concerns

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It has been another quiet week in the rice market as the harvest progresses and the market indicators have remained fairly constant.

Export sales for the week was higher as compared to the previous several weeks with a total of 96,300 MT reported sold. This is a substantial increase from last week’s volume, and will hopefully continue over the next several weeks.

Vessel loadings were also increased as prior sales shipped. This continued movement through the market helps to mitigate some of the congestion that often occurs at this time of year.

Asia pricing was virtually unchanged since last week’s report. None of the major benchmark indicators shifted of note in value.

Similarly, USDA has held its world market price estimate constant for yet another week. Given the stability in the market at this time, none of these factors are likely to change unless a major source of new demand is found or new crop quality concerns become more apparent.

In the domestic cash markets, pricing has also remained constant. Some areas that trade against the futures board have seen some price fluctuations, however the underlying basis seems to be be stable. Second crop harvest continues to progress in the along the Gulf Coast and indicators suggest that for earlier lots, quality and yield are holding to higher levels, while later lots are seeing decreases.

In the futures market, the board traded higher over the course of the week as the bulls took control and drove the market to higher levels than the last few weeks of trading. Overall, the market saw positive returns for the week with gains ranging between 2.12% -3.27% for all open contracts on the board.

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Of note is the steadily increasing volume that has materialized over the last week of trading. With the advent of the Thanksgiving holiday in the coming week and the resultant diminution in information, very little is likely to occur before December.

The WASDE report that will be released is also not expected to see significant changes at this time. As the market winds down for the holiday season, hopefully the fundamentals can generate some noteworthy reactions after the first of the year.

Full report.

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