DTN Grain Midday: Wheat Leads, Row Crops Struggle to Hold Lows

Photo: Kevin Quinn, University of Arkansas

Corn futures are 2 cents lower; soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents higher, and wheat futures are flat to 5 cents higher.

CORN

Corn futures are 2 cents lower with trade scoring new lows for the move as selling picks up during the day session amid little fresh news. Ethanol margins remain stable with cheaper corn offsetting the pullback in blender margins with unleaded fading.

Basis has held up well with the slow pace of harvest; propane shortages still noted, but warmer weather should help through this week. South America should see areas of improvement as planting progresses, especially in Brazil. Weekly export inspections improved slightly to 637,397 metric tons (mt) with another 132,000 mt hitting the daily wire. Harvest should move past the 75% mark, getting us on the downhill slide.

On the December contract support is the $3.68 low Monday along with the lower Bollinger Band at the same level, with resistance the 20-day moving average at $3.81.

SOYBEANS

Soybean futures are 3 to 4 cents lower with light, two-sided trade to start the week before turning weaker with political and trade concerns remaining at the forefront with another flare up in Hong Kong over the weekend. Meal is $4.00 to $5.00 lower and oil is 30 to 40 points higher. The real remains at the lows with planting getting to 70% complete in Brazil.

Bean basis has moved to a more-sideways trend short term with pockets of firmness showing up at crushers with NOPA crush setting a record last month. Weekly export inspections were strong at 1.532 million metric tons (mmt). Weekly harvest progress should be in the 95% range.

On the January chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $9.10, which we are back above with resistance well above the market at $9.30.

WHEAT

Wheat futures are flat to 6 cents higher with the winter wheats leading at midday. The Chicago/KC December spread is 86 cents with steady action to start the week.

The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 53 cents, pushing wheat further from the feed bunk. The weaker dollar could help more if sustained vs. world values this week. Weekly export sales inspections slipped a little to 449,304 mt. Weekly crop progress is expected to show planting nearly complete, emergence lagging a bit, with conditions likely to decline slightly.

The December KC chart support is the lower Bollinger band at $4.14, with resistance the 20-day at 4.23, which we are testing at midday.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 9. The U.S. dollar index is 30 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with crude .90 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs sharply lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 4.70 higher.

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