DTN Cotton Open: Higher on Exports, China Hopes

Cotton harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

The market is somewhat higher Friday supported initially by the White House suggesting a trade deal with China is close. Comments came from a top-ranking economic U.S. official indicating the U.S. and Chinese are in daily contact via video-conferencing and that progress is being made. However, as of Friday, the two sides aren’t even close to a solution. In fact, as it stands, the Chinese want all tariffs lifted before any deal can be struck, while the U.S. wants a deal and then lift the tariffs. So, obviously it’s a night and day situation.

However, a bright spot (no pun) for cotton was Friday’s weekly exports-sales data from USDA. A summary follows:

Net sales of 345,100 bales for 2019/2020 — a marketing-year high — were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Pakistan (117,000), China (83,300), Turkey (46,000), Vietnam (29,400), and Bangladesh (18,300).

For 2020/2021, total net sales of 1,100 bales were for Indonesia. Exports of 126,200 bales were down 3% from the previous week and off 13% from the prior 4-week average. Exports were primarily to Pakistan (35,600), Vietnam (31,100), China (15,700), Mexico (8,800), and Turkey (8,000).

Net sales of Pima totaling 11,900 were down 60% from the previous week and 25% from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Peru (4,800), Bahrain (3,800), Bangladesh (2,500), India (1,700), and Thailand (900), were offset by reductions for China (2,200).

For 2020/2021, total net sales of 600 bales were for Bahrain. Exports of 3,200 bales were down 42% from the previous week and 58% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were India (1,000), Thailand (1,000), Indonesia (500), and Japan (400).

A weather front has moved across the Southeast and is halting some gathering efforts. That same system came across the U.S. Delta with wet and cold conditions, and has moved into the Southeast. This Tuesday past, USDA reported the 2019 crop was 62% done. Monday, the government will update its progress data.

As a reminder, a week from today, on Nov. 22, the December contract will enter its delivery notice period.

For Friday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 63.85 cents and 63.60 cents, with resistance at 65.10 cents and 66.00 cents. Overnight estimated volume is 7,587 contracts.

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