This month’s outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice is for slightly lower supplies, unchanged use, and decreased ending stocks. The NASS November Crop Production report indicated 2019/20 rice production is lowered 0.7 million cwt from the previous forecast to 187.9 million. Long-grain is lowered 0.5 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain is lowered 0.2 million cwt.
The average all rice yield is down 29 pounds to 7,587 pounds per acre. The production decrease corresponds to a 0.7 million cwt decrease in all rice ending stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $13.00 per cwt, up from last year’s revised $12.30.
Global 2019/20 rice supplies are raised 1.4 million tons, mainly on increased beginning stocks reflecting lower 2018/19 consumption. Several mostly offsetting changes led to fractionally lower global production.
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India production is raised 1.0 million tons due to ample water supplies and increased planting intentions of the irrigated Rabi crop. Indonesia production is lowered 0.9 million tons due to the delayed onset of the monsoon, and the Philippines are lowered 0.2 million tons as farmers shift production to more profitable crops.
Global exports for 2019/20 are lowered fractionally led by a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Thailand as its export prices are expected to remain uncompetitive. Partly offsetting is a 0.2-million-ton increase in India exports reflecting the larger crop, and a 0.2-million-ton increase for Vietnam on improved price competitiveness.
Global imports are down 0.5 million tons with a 0.8-million-ton increase for Indonesia more than offset by 0.6-million-ton decrease for China, a 0.4-million-ton decrease for Nigeria, and a 0.2-million-ton decrease for the Philippines.
Ending stocks are raised 2.0 million tons to a record 177.0 million.