WASDE Oilseeds: U.S. Soybean Production Slightly Lower, Ending Stocks Raised

Mature soybean pods ready for harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

The U.S. soybean outlook is for slightly lower production, reduced crush, and higher ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 3.55 billion bushels, down less than 1 million on fractionally lower yields and unchanged harvested area. Soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.11 billion on lower-than expected early-season crush and reduced soybean meal export prospects. With reduced crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels, up 15 million.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2019/20 is forecast at $9.00 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price forecast is also unchanged at $325.00 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at $0.31 per pound, up $0.01 from last month on sharply higher reported prices through October.

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The foreign oilseed supply and demand forecasts for 2019/20 include lower production, crush, and stocks, compared with last month. Foreign production is forecast at 463.6 million tons, down 3.4 million on lower soybean, cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed production.

Soybean production for India is reduced 2.0 million tons to 9.0 million on lower yields resulting from excessive late-season rainfall. Soybean production is also reduced for Canada on lower yields. Other production changes include lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina and lower rapeseed production for Australia and the European Union.

Foreign soybean crush changes for 2019/20 include reductions for India, China, and Canada.

Foreign soybean ending stocks for 2019/20 are reduced with lower projections for Argentina, Canada, and India only partly offset with higher forecasts for Brazil and Egypt.

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