WASDE Coarse Grains: Lower U.S. Corn Production, Ending Stocks

Corn stocks at an elevator location during harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images

This month’s 2019/20 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced use, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels, down 118 million from last month on a 1.4-bushel reduction in yield to 167.0 bushels per acre.

Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are reduced reflecting the slow pace of early-season sales and shipments. Corn used for ethanol is down 25 million bushels based on September data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of October.

With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 18 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $3.85 per bushel based on observed prices to date.

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Global coarse grain production for 2019/20 is forecast 1.8 million tons lower to 1,394.9 million. This month’s 2019/20 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and lower stocks relative to last month.

Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for several African countries, as well as Russia and Turkey, more than offset declines for Mexico, Ukraine, and the EU. For Mexico, production is lowered as area for summer season corn is expected to be the lowest on record. Yield forecasts for Russia and Ukraine are raised and lowered, respectively, based on observed harvest results to date.

Corn exports are raised for Brazil and Russia, with reductions for the United States and Mexico. For 2018/19, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2019, based on shipments observed through October. For 2019/20, corn imports are raised for Vietnam, Colombia, Japan, and South Korea. Partly offsetting, are reductions for Iran, Egypt, Malaysia, and Turkey.

Foreign corn ending stocks are lower relative to last month, with declines for Brazil, Iran, Mexico, China, and Argentina that are partly offset by small increases for several African countries. Global corn ending stocks, at 296.0 million tons, are down 6.6 million.

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