The cotton market finished higher Friday amid improved supply-demand numbers. USDA issued its latest data and it showed declining production and stocks. For the U.S., the crop was cut an astounding 980,000 bales to take the 2019 crop down to 20.82 million bales. Exports were left unchanged at 16.50 million bales, causing ending stocks to drop from their previous 7.0 million bales to 6.10 million bales. However, the latter number still represents a 10-year higher in carryout.
In the world numbers, there were substantial cuts to China (500k), India (500K), and Pakistan (300k). Global stocks fell some three million bales and now stand at 80.80 million bales.
Some traders were perplexed as to why the market did not respond more positively to such reductions. We suppose the market’s inaction still centers on the psychology of having no trade deal with China.
This Tuesday, USDA will issue its weekly crop harvest data, delayed due to Veteran’s Day on Monday. Last week, the 2019 Harvest surpassed the 50% level, and may be edging closer to being 60% gathered.
Also next week, rumors have it the Trump Administration will announce a time and location for not only a resumption of the U.S.-China trade talks but a signing ceremony as well.
For the week, December cotton was up 0.49 cent. December cotton settled at 64.72 cents, up 0.37 cent, March needed at 66.57 cents, up 0.53 cent and December 2020 closed at 68.59 cents, up 0.27 cent. Estimated volume was a massive 80,783 contracts.