DTN Grain Midday: Mostly Lower to Start Week

Harvested corn pouring into grain truck. Photo: University of Tennessee

Corn is 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are flat to 1 cent higher and wheat is 2 to 6 cents lower.

CORN

Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade working back to the lower end of the range coming out of an active harvest weekend. Harvest should make better progress this week with cold but open weather. Ethanol margins should start the week on a steady basis.

Basis should see more pressure as harvest progresses. South America should see areas of improvement as planting progresses. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 10.85 million bushels. The weekly USDA Crop Progress should carry harvest past the halfway point.

On the December contract, support is the recent low at $3.82, then the lower Bollinger band the next level of support at $3.80 with trade nearing oversold conditions. Chart resistance is at the 20-day at $3.88, which we pulled back from, then the $4.01 area where we find the 200-day moving average and near the 2 1/2-month high.

SOYBEANS

Soybeans are flat to 2 cents higher with light two-sided action at midday with more export business needed to ease trade concerns, along harvest being on the homestretch. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil is 65 to 75 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive, along with oversold conditions, but they are starting to ease. The real remains elevated but is a little softer to start the week.

Bean basis should see pressure as combines continue to roll with the homestretch of harvest nationally likely by the end of the week. South America should make more progress through the week with improved weather. Weekly export inspections were solid at 54.403 million bushels. Weekly Crop Progress should show harvest past 80% complete.

On the January chart, support is the 200-day and lower Bollinger band at $9.26 with the 20-day above the market $9.41.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 2 to 6 cents lower to start the week with active range-bound action after the strong finish to last week. The Chicago/KC December spread is 88 cents with narrower action, and now about 12 cents from the recent highs. The corn/hard red winter wheat spread has widened back to 37 cents, with wheat moving back to the edge of rations

. Russian values remain elevated with Australia dry, but the U.S. is still struggling to capture a larger share, with weekly export inspections disappointed at 10.77 million bushels. Weekly Crop Progress to show planting nearly wrapped up, with emergence normal, and conditions mostly steady with last week.

The December KC chart support is the 20-day at $4.18, which we remain just above, then the lower Bollinger band at $3.98 below that with the upper Bollinger band at $4.35 as resistance.

General Comments

The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 135. The dollar index is 20 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude up $1.10. Livestock trade is mixed to mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $3.30.

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