November soybeans ended up 3/4 cent Tuesday, getting only a slight boost from unconfirmed reports China allowed more tariff-free purchases on 367 million bushels of U.S. soybeans. Winter wheat prices fell lower a second day after USDA reported planting progress on its usual pace.
Midday: Quiet mixed trade at midday.
Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower with harvest pressure and disappointing news on the ethanol front after the close adding pressure along with overbought conditions but we have held support on the early test so far. Harvest will remain slow but should show progress through the end of the week before wetter weather returns to the east.
The weekly ethanol report is expected to show slightly higher production and steady stocks, but the biofuels support plan doesn’t contain as much support as hoped with ethanol futures and RIN’s breaking sharply yesterday and fading further this morning. Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon. South American corn planting but is running behind normal.
Weekly crop progress showed conditions at 55% good to excellent, and 15% poor to very poor, with 96% dented vs. 100% on average, 73% mature vs. 92% on average, and 22% harvested vs. 36% on average. On the December contract support is at the 10-day at $3.91 which we are testing overnight, then the 20-day at $3.84, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at 4.03.
Soybeans are 1 to 3 cents lower with trade still chopping around the upper end of the range with overbought conditions and harvest pressure battling improved nearby demand. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil is narrowly mixed. Crush margins remain good with the month crush report coming in 10 million bushels below expectations yesterday. The real is back to the low end of the range vs. the dollar yet again.
Bean basis is should see pressure as combines roll through midweek before rains return. South America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the months with some weather issues remaining and planting pace solidly behind.
Weekly crop progress had conditions edge higher to 54% good to excellent, and 14% poor to very poor, with 85% dropping leaves vs. 94% on average and harvest at 26% vs. 49% on average. On the November chart support is the 10-day at $9.25 with the upper Bollinger Band at 9.45, and the spike high at 9.45 3/4 as resistance.
Wheat trade is 1 to 5 cents higher with good buying showing up during the day session. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 88 cents with choppy action continuing with mostly steady to slightly wider. Remaining spring wheat will likely not be cut at this point.
The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 30 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea origin.
Weekly crop progress showed 65% planted same as average, with 41% emerged vs. 40% on average. Spring wheat harvest remained stalled at 94%. The December Kansas City chart support is the $4.07-4.11 area where the 10,20, and 50-day moving averages are clustered with the upper Bollinger Band at 4.22 as resistance, then the 4.27 3/4 recent high.