December contracts of all three U.S. wheats fell lower Monday, a possible sign of recent rallies running out of steam. December corn was down 3 3/4 cents and November soybeans were down 3/4 cent after enjoying a recent stretch of favorable harvest weather.
Midday: Flat to weaker trade at midday.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday, with light two sided trade to start the week with harvest likely to expand more in the short term. Harvest will expand with local conditions slowing action in some spots, along with soybeans taking priority in others. Ethanol margins are stable coming into the week with futures slightly higher this morning.
Basis remains flat to weaker with anticipation of more inbound bushels soon with still pockets of localized strength. South American corn planting but is running behind normal with mixed weather views at this early juncture in the Southern Hemisphere growing season. The weekly export inspections remain soft at 531,744 metric tons. Weekly crop progress is likely to show steady conditions with maturity and harvest progress still well off the normal pace.
On the December contract support is at the 20-day moving average at $3.87 1/2; the market is trading just below at the 10-day at $3.92 at midday. Chart resistance is at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.04.
Soybeans are narrowly mixed with trade moving back to the upper end of the range again with harvest pressure likely to return into the beginning of the week. Meal flat to 1.00 higher and oil narrowly mixed. Crush margins remain solidly positive, along with trade remaining overbought. The real is slightly weaker vs. the dollar this morning.
Bean basis should see pressure as combines continue to roll. South America should make more progress this week and into the second half of the months with some weather issues remaining and planting pace solidly behind. The weekly export inspections were solid at 1.296 million metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show steady conditions with harvest moving past 1/3 complete when it should be past 1/2.
On the November chart support is the 10-day at $9.30 with the upper Bollinger band at $9.50 as resistance.
Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents lower with Chicago the downside leader after early strength evaporated. The Chicago/Kansas City December spread is 96 cents with trade hitting new highs again to close last week before narrowing slightly overnight. Remaining spring wheat will likely not be cut at this point.
The corn/HRW spread has widened back to 40 cents from 13 cents at the recent low, working wheat back out of rations. Export action continues to be dominated by Black Sea origin, but their prices have firmed while Australia remains dry. The weekly export inspections improved at 565,099 metric tons.
Weekly crop progress should show planting nearing 85%, with the first condition report possible. The December Kansas City chart support is the 10-day at $4.21 with the 100-day at 4.39 the next level up with the upper Bollinger band right at $4.35.